COFFEE, TEA OR TURBULENCE?

Just when you thought flying couldn’t get any more unpleasant, our atmosphere has joined the airlines in trying to shake you down.

Consider last week when a flight to Los Angeles suffered a 3675-foot drop in one minute, leaving passengers screaming and at least one flight attendant bloodied.  Four flight attendants were injured, one was hospitalized, but no passengers were hurt, presumably belted into their seats.

The flight was already descending through 25,000 feet to land and one pilot said he thought it felt like wake turbulence from another jet, even though flight-tracking data reportedly showed no other plane nearby.  But the terror in the cabin was just as real.

Adding literal insult to injury, the flight had to wait at least 30 minutes after landing to park at a gate, even with the injured on board.  Welcome to LAX.

Researchers say that wind shear at jetliners’ cruising altitude, the main cause of clear-air turbulence (CAT), is up 15% since 1979.  Over the North Atlantic, en route to Europe, the number of hours of severe turbulence is up 55%.

What’s causing this increase?  Long term, global warming. This winter there’s a near-record El Niño in the Pacific, which research links to 50% more turbulence over large parts of the U.S. and the North Atlantic.  

Professor Paul Williams at the University of Reading in the UK says his models show a doubling or tripling of such turbulence in the coming decades, aviation’s sequel to the increasingly severe storms we’ve experienced lately in the Northeast.

Jetliners’ weather radar can’t see clear-air turbulence. Lidar, the fix that’s been ‘just around the corner’ for decades, is still around the corner.  Commuters on Metro-North are familiar with that kind of unkept promise.

Except in very rare circumstances, turbulence doesn’t cause planes to crash.  In testing, Boeing bent the 777’s wings to 154% of their design limit before they snapped, the wingtips flexing some 24 feet upward. 

Turbulence’s greatest danger is tossing those onboard (who aren’t belted) up to the ceiling and back down.  According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) flight attendants are 24 times more likely to be seriously injured than passengers. 

At one Delta regional carrier, the flight attendants union says crews keep working the aisle through turbulence because they’re graded on passenger satisfaction surveys.  Nothing says ‘customer first’ like sustaining a broken ankle for a five-star review.

About half of turbulence accidents happen during descent or approach, and 60% below 20,000 feet. That’s when crews are up securing the cabin for landing.  The aft cabin is the danger zone, accounting for more than three-quarters of flight attendant injuries… another reason to fly up front in First.

Staffing cuts at the National Weather Service don’t help in predicting rough skies. The NWS lost about 15% of its staff to Trump administration cuts and buyouts. Last year the GAO found only 69 NWS meteorologists working in FAA air traffic centers, against a cap of 81. Officials planned to shrink that to 64.  Turbulence up. Forecasters down.  What could go wrong?

What can you do to stay safe?  Well, aside from seeking alternate transportation, like the train, not much.  Sadly, train service to Europe is pretty weak.

Instead, keep your seat belt fastened at all times. Make visits to the washroom infrequent and quick.  Be sure your bags in the overhead are stowed and the bin doors closed tightly.  And most of all, always follow crew instructions, especially during descent when turbulence hits most often.