OUR AC-DC RAILROAD

As I continue my summer vacation, I’ve updated a column I wrote 14 years ago…

Metro-North’s train service in Connecticut is challenging because of a technological quirk of fate: ours is the only commuter railroad in the U.S. that operates on three modes of power… AC, DC and diesel.

On a typical run from, say, New Haven to Grand Central, the first part of the journey is done “under the wire”, the trains being powered by 13,000 volt AC overhead wires, or catenaries.  Around Pelham, in Westchester County, the pantographs are lowered and the conversion is made to 660 volt DC third-rail power for the rest of the trip into New York City.  Even diesel engines must convert to third-rail, as their smoky exhaust is banned in the Park Avenue tunnels.

Third Rail "Shoe"

And there’s the rub: Connecticut trains need both AC and DC, overhead and third-rail, power pick-ups and processors. That means a lot more electronics, and added cost, for each car.  While the DC-only M7 cars running in Westchester cost about $2 million each, the dual-mode M8 car designed for Connecticut cost considerably more.

So, some folks are asking… “Why not just use one power source? Just replace the overhead wires with third-rail and we can buy cheaper cars.”  Simple, yes. Smart, no.  And here’s why.

DC-powered third rail is less efficient. Trains accelerate much faster using overhead AC voltage, the power source used by the fastest trains in the world… the TGV, Shinkansen, etc.  On third-rail speeds are limited to 75 miles an hour vs. 90 mph under the wire. That means, mile for mile, commute time is longer using third rail.

There’s not enough space to lay a third-rail along each of the four tracks in the railroad’s right of way.  All four existing tracks would have to be ripped out and the space between them widened.  Every bridge and tunnel would have to be widened, platforms moved and land acquired. Cost? Probably hundreds of millions of dollars, years of construction and service disruptions.

Even with third-rail, the CDOT would still be required to provide overhead power lines for Amtrak’s catenary-only electric trains. That would mean maintaining two power systems.  

Third-rail AC power requires power substations every few miles, meaning further construction and real estate. The environmental lawsuits alone would kill this idea.

Third-rail ices up in bad weather and can get buried in snow, causing short circuits. Overhead wires have problems sometimes, but they are never buried in a blizzard.

Third-rail is dangerous to pedestrians and track workers.  The idea of conversion to third-rail was studied in the 1980’s by consultants to CDOT.  They concluded that, while cumbersome and costly, the current dual-power system is, in the long run, cheaper and more efficient than installing third-rail. The engineers at CDOT got it right.

Doubtless, we’ll have further “wires down” problems on Metro-North in the years to come. Ironically, Metro-North’s 97% on-time record has made us come to expect good service, despite our ancient infrastructure. But in the long run, service will be faster and even more reliable by sticking with our dual-mode system.

 

TRAVEL GOES ELECTRIC

Enjoying the heatwave this summer?  The electric utilities sure are. 

And just wait ‘til you get your next bill.  They’ve been warning us for months now that we’ll be in for a shocker as the average bill will jump about a $13 per month . 

That’s on top of what are already the second highest electric rates in the US, exceeded only by those in Hawaii.  In Connecticut we pay twice as much money for electricity as customers in some other states.

But you get what you pay for and, so far this summer, our electric supply and reliability hasn’t been an issue as in other states.  Aside from storm damage, there have been no interruptions, no brown-outs or requests to reduce consumption. 

But increasingly we are relying on electricity for more than just AC but also, more and more, for our transportation. 

As Metro-North and Amtrak add more service, that means more electric trains… and demands on Eversource.  But again, so far so good this summer.  Even on the hottest days the railroad has not had to reduce its consumption by running trains slower.

Credit must also go to CDOT which spent $912 million between 1993 and 2021 fixing the railroads’ catenary system delivering that electricity.  That’s why our trains keep running while those in New Jersey don’t.

Consider also CDOT’s recent purchase of 46 new electric buses which will run on the CTfastrak busway between New Britain and Hartford.  Bought under an $86 million federal grant, the new buses will be cleaner and quieter, running 250 miles per day on a single charge. CDOT plans to electrify all 700 of its buses by 2035.

And we’re not even talking about the future of electric-power airplanes or mandatory use of “shore power” for cargo ships when docked, all in the name of clean air and global warming.

How about other electric vehicles… e-school buses, light duty trucks (think Amazon local delivery) and, of course, electric cars?  Is “the grid” ready for that increased demand?

Electric passenger car sales have slowed in recent months as consumers seem reluctant to “go electric” until we have more charging stations.  But those EVs are still selling: in Q2 EV sales were up 11% year over year. 

And that keeps Victoria Rojo mighty busy planning for the future.

She’s the Lead Data Scientist at ISO-New England, the independent, non-profit organization that runs our region’s grid.  They’re responsible for coordinating New England’s 32,000 megawatt power capacity, working with 400 different generators serving over 14 million customers.  It’s a second-by-second balancing act.

ISO-New England Control Room

A physicist by training, she projects that we will see a 23% increase in electric demand in just the next decade (not including electric trains).  Nor does that projection include the effects of global warming on increased AC usage.  “That’s a difficult one to adjust for,” she tells me.

Visit the ISO-NE.com website and you’ll see a breakdown of electricity demand and how it’s being met.  There’s also a daily projection of demand, hour by hour, which proves amazingly accurate.

With the closing of the region’s last few coal-fired plants, New England is still heavily reliant on natural gas and nuclear power for almost two-thirds of its power.  Renewables like solar and wind now answer less than 5% of our needs.

Obviously, we will need more power plants and a better transmission system (electricity suffers “line loss” the farther you send it) to meet these growing demands.  So Rojo’s planning is just the first step.

In the meantime, crank up the AC.

THE FIRST TRANSCON

Aviation history was made July 7, 1929,  when the first transcontinental flight from New York to Los Angeles, took off, not with an airplane, but on a train.

This was the real birth of commercial aviation in the US, and it was led by none other than Charles Lindbergh,  just two years after his solo crossing of the Atlantic.

The journey from New York began with an overnight Pullman train. Christened by Amelia Earhart “The Airway Limited“, it arrived the next morning at Port Columbus, Ohio at a purpose-built train station and airport.  There the passengers boarded a Ford Trimotor and flew west stopping to refuel in St. Louis, Kansas City and finally arriving in Waynoka, OK.   There they boarded another train overnight and finished the final leg from Clovis NM to LA the next day, again by air.

Ford Trimotor

Lindbergh piloted the first eastbound transcon flight July 8th from Glendale, CA, having leant his name, expertise and reputation to, for its time, a Bezos-sized leap into the future.

The service pioneered by Transcontinental Air Transport (TAT, later to become TWA) cut travel time between the east and west coast in half, to only 46 hours eastbound, and 50 hours going west against the wind.

The Fort Trimotor model 5-AT could carry up to 17 passengers, each of whom paid the equivalent, in today’s dollars, of about $6200 for the one-way trip.

Because the plane was unpressurized and could only fly at low altitudes, the ride was usually bumpy.  And noisy: sound levels as high as 120 dB inside the cabin meant that cabin stewards had to use megaphones to talk to passengers inflight.

Ford Trimotor interior

The Trimotor cruised at 107 mph (compared to modern jets at 500 – 600 mph).  The planes creaked and groaned and the wooden windows rattled in their frames. It was said there would be random metallic sounds throughout the flight… hardly reassuring.

As daring (and exhausting) as daytime travel by air might have been, it was still considered far too dangerous to fly at night. There were few navigation beacons until 1930.  After that the trains were then replaced with more planes.

In September 1929 Lindy’s line made another aviation first:  the first air crash involving a commercial flight over land.  All onboard perished in this, the first of three such accidents in the airline’s first few months of operation.

Despite the public’s fascination with aviation, this transcontinental service never turned a profit, even with their relatively high fares.  In its first year and a half of operations, the transcontinental service lost the equivalent, in today’s money, of $49 million. Less than four months after its launch, the stock market crashed in October 1929, ushering in the Great Depression, which slashed passenger numbers and badly needed revenue.

But this venture, visionary and creative as it was, led, through bankruptcy and mergers, to the creation of TWA, which itself was acquired by American Airlines in 2001.  Today the New York to Los Angeles market sees 4 million passengers a year.  Fares are as low as $150 one-way and the journey takes about five to six hours.

NJ TRANSIT MELTDOWN OFFERS HOPE FOR COMPETITION

What happens when years of neglect catch up with a commuter railroad?  Look no further than New Jersey, where NJ Transit is in the midst of a meltdown.  This should serve as a warning to Connecticut.

Hardly a day goes by without hearing of train woes in the Garden State, many of them tied to broken down trains or catenary (overhead power wires) being snagged in Penn Station.  Service is abysmal and yet a 15% fare hike is going to effect July 1^st.

Adding to the woes, an impending strike by locomotive engineers after four years of arbitration and no contract.

What happened?  About a dozen years of under-investment in the railroad dating back to the term of Governor Chris Christie who famously cancelled plans to build a badly needed new tunnel under the Hudson River.

When Governor Phil Murphy was elected in 2017 he promised to change all that, but in recent years he’s taken money that was to be spent on capital improvements and spent it instead on operations.  That’s a big no-no.

Like Metro-North, NJ Transit has never recovered from Covid with ridership hovering at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels. Fewer riders means less revenue for what was already a money-losing operation.

But the railroad’s woes are now offering potential competition from entrepreneur Joe Colangelo, the 39 year old founder and CEO of Boxcar.

Joe Colangelo

You might remember him as the guy who started a parking app for rail commuters before the pandemic, when ridership was soaring and station parking was scarce.  He still runs that business, managing 1500 parking spaces near stations in four states (including 140 spaces in New Canaan, Greenwich & Darien), all bookable on their app. 

But Boxcar’s real innovation is running 46 to 56 seat luxury motor coaches from 12 NJ bedroom communities into midtown Manhattan.  They offer guaranteed seats, free Wi-Fi and amazing customer service… at a price.

“Our customers are willing to trade money for time and convenience,” says Colangelo, a Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan. Members pay $30 a month and get a 33% discount on fares which are 50 – 100% higher than the train fare.

“Half of our customers used to ride the train,” says Colangelo.  But he says many had a bad experience on the subway getting from Penn Station to their offices and won’t go back.  Boxcar offers a one-seat ride with 65 runs a day Tuesday through Thursday and a dozen trips on Fridays.

“About two thirds of our riders say if the bus wasn’t available, they’d drive,” he adds.

Boxcar charters its buses from 14 different companies and each run has a dedicated driver, “giving riders a relationship, like with a doorman”.

Every run is monitored from 5 am to 8 pm and if it’s as little as 2 minutes late, each passenger is given a text update.  If there’s no AC on the bus, your ride is free (something that happened just four times on 1200 runs last year).  They even keep an extra bus on standby should any problems arise.

Boxcar is ready to expand service to meet demand.  “We know where our next 100 bus charters will come from,” says the boss.  And yes, their operation is already profitable.

Arriving in Manhattan

Boxcar experimented with bus service from New Canaan and Darien but I-95 traffic made their runs too slow.  Colangelo expects that, after the November elections, NY Governor Hochul will reverse her opposition to congestion pricing, car traffic will lighten and bus service from Connecticut might be possible.

Competition is a good thing, especially for poorly managed transit systems more beholden to their political funders than their fare-paying passengers.

US NAVY AT WAR IN RED SEA

Did you know that the US Navy is now engaged in its biggest sea battle since World War II?

That’s the news from the Red Sea where US Navy and other allies’ warships are patrolling the waters, trying to keep commercial shipping safe on its way to and from the Suez Canal despite constant bombardments by the Houthis.

That renegade faction in Yemen, with weapons supplied by Iran, has been attacking ships since November using drones, missiles and unmanned surface vessels (boat bombs).  They claim to be doing these attacks because of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, but their targets have included many ships with no ties to that country.

Those attacks (60 so far) have sunk two ships and killed four mariners, most recently this past week in an attack captured on video by a boat bomb on a Greek-owned bulk carrier.

Why should we care?  Two reasons:

First, 12% of all the world’s shipping goes through the Suez Canal, or used to.  Because of the Houthi attacks and resulting “surge pricing” (up 900%) for war risk insurance, most ships bound from Asia to Europe are now taking the longer, safer route around the tip of Africa adding 4000 miles and about 14-18 days of extra travel time and a 70% bump in fuel costs.  That means shipments are late and the added cost ($1000 per shipping container, 12,000 containers per ship) is being passed along to customers.

Aside for the now-all-too-familiar “supply chain disruptions”, these attacks have now put US sailors literally in harm’s way.

The aptly named Red Sea safety patrols of “Operation Prosperity Guardian” include the US aircraft carrier Eisenhower and its escort ships (cruisers,   destroyers and support vessels) staffed with a combined 6000 - 7000 US crew members.  Now, they too, are under attack by the Houthis.

USS Eisenhower

For nine months the US Navy ships have been on constant alert, watching for incoming attacks… some by swarms of low-speed armed drones, others with anti-ship cruise missiles or even 15,000 mph ballistic missiles.

That means that, 24 x 7, these US warships are watching for Houthi attacks, sometimes responding with American warplanes, missiles and, as a last resort, the Phalanx Gatling gun which fires 3000 rounds per minute with a range of about one mile.

From the time of a Houthi missile launch to possible impact on a target, we’re talking about minutes, maybe even seconds.

Nothing would please the Houthis more than hitting a US Navy ship.  And they’ve already made several claims of bombing the USS Eisenhower, though those claims seem to be more for domestic PR than based in fact.

The US and its allies have fired back on the Houthis’ radar sites, but the guerillas’ truck-mounted launch systems are almost impossible to track let alone destroy.  And the supply of Iranian armaments seems endless.

How will the Pentagon react if (or when) a US Navy ship takes a direct hit or American sailors are injured or killed?  What would an escalation of this war mean to the world’s economy, still struggling to recover?

 

 

 

 

 

BIG BROTHER ON YOUR TRIP

Ready for a summer vacation?  Car packed, airline tickets at hand?  You may not realize it, but Big Brother’s coming along with you.  However you chose to travel, don’t expect to have much privacy.

BY CAR:      I’ve written for years about how E-ZPass tracks your journey, not just your tolls.  And those new gantries built in Manhattan for now-on-hold congestion pricing?  I’d just assume they’re still activated, if not collecting fees.

How about those new super-LPRs (License Plate Readers) that the NY-NJ Port Authority has installed on all bridges into and out of Staten Island?  They track every single vehicle with that data stored for who knows how long.  The NYPD says they’ve already seen a 30% reduction in stolen cars from that outer-most borough, so expect that tech to come to other NYC bridges and tunnels.

Several Connecticut towns are also installing permanent LPRs at their borders to track stolen vehicles.  That data on your comings and goings is also preserved.

On Connecticut’s interstates and parkways there are cameras everywhere.  You can even watch them online.  Red light and speed cameras are now coming to Connecticut.  And in some cities they’re experimenting with stop sign cameras.

Your car is also monitoring how you drive and sharing that data with insurance companies.  The computers inside your engine (and the apps on your phone) collect a lot of information about your acceleration and braking and they “monetize” (sell) the data to insurance companies without your knowledge.

BY TRAIN & SUBWAY:     Metro-North may not have Wi-Fi, but they sure have cameras recording in every car, while many towns also have cameras on every train platform.  And soon every NYC subway train and station will be similarly equipped.  Were they to use facial recognition software, the authorities could track the identity and whereabouts of anyone on the system just as they do in China.

Swipe a MetroCard or use OMNY to ride the subway?  There’s a record of that, too.  And with the MTA losing $800 million to fare evasion, will it be long before AI starts identifying the scofflaws?

ON FOOT / BIKE:   In New York City, there are 18,000 CCTV cameras almost everywhere.  Have you ever noticed how quickly cops can post video of street crime, almost anytime and anywhere?  You are being watched.

BY AIR:        Your airline and the TSA require you to provide a legal ID every time you fly.  And now some airlines are using facial recognition software instead of boarding passes to climb onboard.  ICE (Immigration & Customs Enforcement) also use that software when you enter the country.  And your passport… did you know it has an RFID chip embedded in the cover?  What information is stored on there?

In most European countries residents are required to carry a government issued ID card at all times and to produce it on request of authorities.  Skeptics have always said such oversight would never come to the US, but is the tech I described above any different?  In fact, it’s better, confirming not only your identity but your exact location minute by minute.

Have a great trip.

CONGESTION PRICING ON HOLD

What was she thinking? 

Just 25 days before implementation, why did NY Governor Kathy Hochul pull the plug on New York City’s congestion pricing scheme in a move one pundit called “the perfect clash of governmental incompetence meets political malpractice”.

Five years in the planning and studied over and over again, congestion pricing would have charged drivers of the 700,000 vehicles that enter Manhattan each day below 60^th Street for the privilege:  $15 for a car, $24 - $36 for a truck. In addition to easing gridlock, the plan would also raise $1 billion a year for the cash-strapped MTA to repair and improve mass transit.  That’s a win-win.

Just weeks ago Hochul was in Europe touting congestion pricing as the “better way” to save New York City.  She called her leadership on this issue “being bold” and said sometimes leaders have to make tough decisions and stick with them.

And then she dropped this bombshell without warning… not to members of the MTA Board, other political and business leaders and not to environmentalists.  They are all livid.

IMPACT ON NEW YORKERS

Even before the Hochul surprise, money is so tight at MTA that some capital plans have already been put on hold.  As for the extension of the Second Avenue subway to 125^th St?  It is effectively dead.  So too are plans to increase access to the subways for those with disabilities.  And she claims about caring about the poor?

Of those in poverty living in the city’s outer boroughs, only 2% of them drive into Manhattan while 61% use mass transit.  Most of the poor don’t even own cars.

 

IMPACT ON CONNECTICUT COMMUTERS

For Connecticut commuters to NYC, the impact of Gov Hochul’s decision will be minimal.  Planned expenditures on new railcars for Metro-North will be paid for with state (and federal) funds, not money from the MTA. 

But even if congestion pricing had gone into effect, Connecticut commuters wouldn’t really have been impacted.  According to the MTA, 27,000 of our residents take the train to NYC each day.  Only 3100 people drive.  And under congestion pricing, those who, for whatever reason still chose to drive, could do so, probably enjoying less traffic on their journey in return for their “toll”.

Of course, even if you take Metro-North to Grand Central, your journey might then include a subway ride, and that’s where Gov Hochul’s decision will be most felt with more crowding and deteriorating service.

THE BOTTOM LINE

How will Hochul make up the lost revenue that would have come from congestion pricing?  By a new tax on businesses.  How will that improve the city’s business climate let alone repair the environment, the other big promise of congestion pricing?

Worst of all, this decision by New York’s governor will cripple her administration’s credibility and just feed everyone’s cynicism about politicians saying one thing and doing another.  How can she make any deal, make any promise or attempt to govern the Empire State after this flip-flop fiasco?