COFFEE, TEA OR TURBULENCE?

Just when you thought flying couldn’t get any more unpleasant, our atmosphere has joined the airlines in trying to shake you down.

Consider last week when a flight to Los Angeles suffered a 3675-foot drop in one minute, leaving passengers screaming and at least one flight attendant bloodied.  Four flight attendants were injured, one was hospitalized, but no passengers were hurt, presumably belted into their seats.

The flight was already descending through 25,000 feet to land and one pilot said he thought it felt like wake turbulence from another jet, even though flight-tracking data reportedly showed no other plane nearby.  But the terror in the cabin was just as real.

Adding literal insult to injury, the flight had to wait at least 30 minutes after landing to park at a gate, even with the injured on board.  Welcome to LAX.

Researchers say that wind shear at jetliners’ cruising altitude, the main cause of clear-air turbulence (CAT), is up 15% since 1979.  Over the North Atlantic, en route to Europe, the number of hours of severe turbulence is up 55%.

What’s causing this increase?  Long term, global warming. This winter there’s a near-record El Niño in the Pacific, which research links to 50% more turbulence over large parts of the U.S. and the North Atlantic.  

Professor Paul Williams at the University of Reading in the UK says his models show a doubling or tripling of such turbulence in the coming decades, aviation’s sequel to the increasingly severe storms we’ve experienced lately in the Northeast.

Jetliners’ weather radar can’t see clear-air turbulence. Lidar, the fix that’s been ‘just around the corner’ for decades, is still around the corner.  Commuters on Metro-North are familiar with that kind of unkept promise.

Except in very rare circumstances, turbulence doesn’t cause planes to crash.  In testing, Boeing bent the 777’s wings to 154% of their design limit before they snapped, the wingtips flexing some 24 feet upward. 

Turbulence’s greatest danger is tossing those onboard (who aren’t belted) up to the ceiling and back down.  According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) flight attendants are 24 times more likely to be seriously injured than passengers. 

At one Delta regional carrier, the flight attendants union says crews keep working the aisle through turbulence because they’re graded on passenger satisfaction surveys.  Nothing says ‘customer first’ like sustaining a broken ankle for a five-star review.

About half of turbulence accidents happen during descent or approach, and 60% below 20,000 feet. That’s when crews are up securing the cabin for landing.  The aft cabin is the danger zone, accounting for more than three-quarters of flight attendant injuries… another reason to fly up front in First.

Staffing cuts at the National Weather Service don’t help in predicting rough skies. The NWS lost about 15% of its staff to Trump administration cuts and buyouts. Last year the GAO found only 69 NWS meteorologists working in FAA air traffic centers, against a cap of 81. Officials planned to shrink that to 64.  Turbulence up. Forecasters down.  What could go wrong?

What can you do to stay safe?  Well, aside from seeking alternate transportation, like the train, not much.  Sadly, train service to Europe is pretty weak.

Instead, keep your seat belt fastened at all times. Make visits to the washroom infrequent and quick.  Be sure your bags in the overhead are stowed and the bin doors closed tightly.  And most of all, always follow crew instructions, especially during descent when turbulence hits most often.

DRONE DELIVERY DEBATE

Do we really want drones flying over our homes, delivering packages for Amazon?  That’s the question being asked here in Connecticut as North Haven becomes the test site for long-promised delivery drones in our Connecticut skies.

Not a neighbor?  Read on as there are several other sites that Amazon might use to bring their deliveries (and drones) closer to you including Windsor, Cromwell, and eventually Naugatuck/Waterbury, though no formal plans have been disclosed.

It was back in 2013 that Amazon’s Jeff Bezos first talked of drone deliveries, promising they’d be dropping five pound packages at our homes within 30 minutes of an order being placed.  He said the drones would be flying in four or five years.  It took nine.  Bezos got himself to space faster. 

Amazon's MK30 Drone

The first real drone deliveries by Amazon didn’t start until 2022 in pilot programs in California and Texas, both since discontinued.

In North Haven’s case Amazon asked the town last May for its OK to build a drone-port and P&Z approved the plan unanimously.   There was no public hearing nor public comment. The issue of excessive noise never came up.  

Actually,  the town doesn’t really have much say as it’s the FAA that regulates drones.  Amazon is asking that agency to approve up to 1000 flights a day, each cruising at 250 feet and serving an area of about 7 ½ miles… roughly New Haven to Branford… with 300,000 residents.

Drones could fly from 6:00 am to 10:30 pm, hovering on delivery at about 13 feet before dropping their packages (up to five pounds) and flying back to their base. 

But what about the noise?

Amazon’s plan is to use MK30 drones, each with six rotors and a maximum speed of 73 mph.  On take-off each drone generates 90 decibels of noise…louder than a leaf blower at 50 feet.  On delivery it spends roughly a minute below cruise altitude.  Noise level on delivery, about as loud as a vacuum cleaner.

Amazon’s North Haven warehouse sits in an industrial area between the Wilbur Cross Parkway and I-91 but there are residences nearby.  The site is also close to a migratory bird flyway on the Quinnipiac River.  And it’s just 10 miles from Tweed airport.

Despite the North Haven Planning & Zoning Commission’s enthusiasm for the plan, when the details came out, the objections were heard as loud as those drones. 

The town’s First Selectman Michael Freda said this was “not the right way” and called for hearings by DEEP, the state’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection.  The FAA, as required, asked DEEP to confirm the project fits Connecticut’s coastal policies.  The state agency tells me they got over 1000 comments and a final ruling will come by mid-November.

Freda says Amazon has put the project on hold.  Amazon hasn’t said so, and hasn’t withdrawn its FAA application.  At Amazon, “on hold” may mean the same as “out for delivery”: it’s coming, just not yet.

You’ve got to remember that Amazon is a major employer in the North Haven area with 2500 people employed there when that warehouse first opened. The pols are posturing and promising on this issue as this is, you’ll remember, an election year.

We used to talk about NIMBYs, the “Not in My Back Yard” crowd.  Now we must think of a new constituency… the NOMHs (pronounced “nomes”), the “Not Over My House” folks who want peace and quiet more than half-hour deliveries.

 

THE FINAL BOARDING CALL

Planning a flight soon?  With fewer airlines to choose among (including newcomers Avelo and Breeze, both with bases in Connecticut), let’s take a moment of silence to remember the carriers that are no more.  Seatbacks and tray tables in their upright positions, please.  It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Do you remember PEOPLExpress Airlines?  How about NorthEast?  Or Mohawk?

These airlines of the past are what we call “fallen flags”, remembered, perhaps, but no longer in business, at least not under those names.  The US domestic airline industry is littered with such unclaimed baggage of our traveling past and each one brings back memories of a time when flying was fun and a middle seat came with a meal, not just a fee.

Newark-based PEOPLExpress was a favorite of mine, flying out of the ancient North Terminal and charging super-low fares which were collected in-flight.  Like many carriers they grew too big, too fast and were snapped up by aviation pariah Frank Lorenzo.

We also had Pan Am, Eastern, TWA, Northwest and Continental, each gobbled up or merged with much larger carriers leaving us with, some say, a much less competitive (and more expensive) travel industry.

Recent airline closures include ULCC (Ultra-Low-Cost Carrier) Spirit, the airline that taught us to pay for checked bags.  Hawaiian still flies, but under its acquirer Alaska Airlines' code.  Some of the lost carriers were airlines within an airline, like Song (Delta’s low cost carrier, targeted specifically at women) or Ted (a no-frills subset of United). 

Texas-based Braniff had the distinction of being the only US airline to fly the Concorde (albeit on a lease from Air France and British Airways and flown subsonic over US airspace). Braniff’s jets were painted in bold colors by Alexander Calder, their flight attendants uniforms designed by Emilio Pucci.

A slew of regional carriers long ago made their final boarding calls:  Mohawk (taken over by Allegheny, itself subsumed into USAir which in turn was bought by American).  Piedmont was also grabbed by USAir.  North Central and Southern Airlines became Republic, which bought Hughes Airwest before getting picked up by Northwest, formerly known as Northwest Orient.

Air Florida flew for 13 years, even flying to seven European cities.  And you might remember ValuJet which merged with AirTran. Tower Air made a name for itself (and good money) flying charters for the Pentagon while also providing cheap transcon service from JFK to the West Coast.  Four other carriers, World Airways, Capitol, ONA (Overseas National) and Trans International, also became successful charter lines for civilians and the military.

Carnival Airlines, owned by the cruise ship line, funneled passengers to its own ships on charters and was later acquired by a reorganized Pan Am. 

Midwest was a favorite for many, offering fresh baked cookies inflight in comfy 2 by 2 seating on their DC-9s.  But there were also regional carriers Vanguard, Air South, Eastwind and McClain airlines.

For crossing the “pond” there were a number of failed airlines that offered business-class comfort at bargain fares:  Eos, MaxJet and SilverJet.  Still flying is one of my favorites, French airline La Compagnie which flies just 76 passengers on an A-321neo that can usually carry over 200, at less than traditional business-class fares.

Domestically MGM Grand Air was popular with the Hollywood crowd, flying from LAX to JFK in a lavishly equipped DC-8 with couches and such.

When smoking was banned on US flights starting in 1988, the Tobacco Institute talked about starting a smokers-only airline, but that never happened.

One airline that did fly, for a couple of years, was Hooters Air, owned by the restaurant chain.  In-flight cabin staff on the golfer-targeted flights to Myrtle Beach wore the same skimpy attire as the restaurant’s waitresses.  Hardly PC,  never profitable and, thankfully, short-lived.

Yes… flying used to be fun and cheap.  But now it’s neither.

YOUR NEXT CAR WILL BE A LUXURY

It’s been a busy week on the transportation beat. Not much of it good:

CHEAPER CARS?            The US Dept of Transportation is rolling back Biden-era plans to require automakers to increase their fleet’s MPG.  Rather than the goal of 50.4 mpg, the new rules will settle for 34.9 mpg by 2031.  The White House claims this may save you $1300 on the cost of a new car. 

But savings on the sticker price won’t be free.  Because the new cars won’t get the targeted mileage improvements, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates you’ll spend $1624 more for gas over the life of your vehicle.

By the way, according to the industry ‘bible’, Kelley Blue Book, the average new vehicle in the US now costs $50,089, up almost 2% in one year. 

That will puts new vehicle buyers in Connecticut into a higher tax bracket:  7.75% sales tax for “luxury cars” vs the usual 6.35%, meaning the average new set of wheels in Connecticut will now, legally, be a luxury.

ANOTHER CDOT DEATH:          For the second time in two years a CDOT highway worker has been killed doing his job.  Sixty-year-old Elvin Hernandez was doing road maintenance on I-95 when he was hit by a car that was driving on the grass on the right shoulder near exit 20.  

Elvin Hernandez

The driver of that car, Edward Myers, also age 60, was arrested and admitted to officers he’d just used heroin.  Myers was convicted of DUI this past April and has been on probation.  He’s now being held on $2 million bond, charged with manslaughter.

Working alongside our highways with cars zooming by at high speed is a challenging and dangerous job.  Recent efforts at placing speed cameras in work zones have seen some success.  A pilot test for eight months in 2023 saw 24,900 warning notices issued to drivers but only 750 violations. During testing this spring cameras clocked 8.4 million cars passing the work zones, 1.36 million of them exceeding the speed limit.  More than 150 drivers were clocked in excess of 100 mph.

TARIFFS & NEW RAIL CARS:    Metro-North parent MTA (the Metropolitan Transportation Authority) plans to spend $23 billion on new rail cars, subway cars and buses.  But the price tag is being inflated by $1 billion due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imported components.  That’s enough money to buy 150 LIRR train cars, almost 1000 buses or more than 250 subway cars.

The White House tariffs on imported railroad gear “will not result in a [domestic US] railcar manufacturing boom; it will only raise costs for transit agencies at a time when other construction costs are skyrocketing” the MTA board was told this week.

That’s code for eventually “higher fares”.

BRIGHTLINE:         As I predicted weeks ago, this modern, stylish, for-profit passenger railroad in Florida has filed for bankruptcy.  Ridership and fares are not growing as fast as hoped… revenue is less than half of what was predicted… so the railroad has had to restructure $2.5 billion in debt. 

So much for the free market saving passenger rail, fueled by junk bonds.

Meanwhile, the railroad’s trains between Miami and Orlando will keep running.  However, Brightline’s plan for a high-speed line from Southern California to Las Vegas is already behind schedule and still hunting for money.

Brightline West Artist Rendering

 

 

 

THE VERNON GRUMBLE - RUMBLE vs MUMBLE

Why would anyone oppose road safety?  Well, perhaps, when the solution can be heard from your bedroom.

State Route 527 in Vernon (known locally as West Street), which carries 7000+ cars a day, has a blemished record for traffic accidents:  90 crashes in a recent three-year period. Too often cars veer over the centerline of the highway, off the road or into oncoming traffic.

The proposed solution by CDOT is “rumble strips”. 

"Rumble Strips"

You’ve probably seen, felt or heard them in your own driving… when the road makes a low rumbling sound as you drive across the centerline.  The sensations are designed to alert you, usually in time to correct your path and avoid danger.

CDOT told the Hartford Courant that “hundreds of miles of centerline rumble strips have been installed across Connecticut, and CTDOT has received very few noise complaints. They remain a low-cost improvement with a significant safety benefit for the traveling public.”

Vernon’s mayor Dan Champagne says he’s all for public safety but not if it comes with noise.  In a posting on Facebook he writes: “When cars and trucks drive on these rumble strips they make a lot of noise and neighbors are going to hear them around the clock.  Cars and trucks travel West Street at all hours of the day and the noise is going to be constant.”

Mayor Champagne

But isn’t that the idea, Mr. Mayor? 

Those rumble strips only make noise when people are heading toward an accident.  If people drive better there’ll be no noise and maybe no accidents.  And the sound of crashing metal as vehicles collide isn’t exactly a lullaby.

As CDOT points out:  “In Connecticut, approximately 30 deaths and 2,000 injuries occur each year from head-on and sideswipe opposite direction crashes… when a vehicle crosses over the centerline and impacts a vehicle traveling in the opposite direction.” 

“Nationwide data shows 18% of non-intersection fatal crashes are caused by two vehicles colliding head-on and that 75% of these head-on crashes occur on undivided two-lane roads.”  And that’s not exactly quiet, right?

Still, CDOT has been through this before in 1999 at an undisclosed “high-crash location” when rumble strips proved too noisy and were ripped out.

But wait.  There may be a solution that warns wayward drivers without waking the neighbors from their slumber:  not rumble strips but “mumble strips”.

CDOT says they can now groove the centerline with sinusoidal designs (ripples rather than bumps) that are "formed by wave patterns in the pavement rather than grooves cut into it, making them quieter than earlier designs."  Wavy instead of groovy, man.

Studies show the 'mumble' pattern is up to 11 dB quieter.   At its best, that roughly cuts the noise in half.

Total cost for the Vernon project:  just $5000 in state funds, less than the cost of a single head-on crash, not even factoring in the human costs of injuries.

To their credit, CDOT will hold a virtual informational meeting on this plan on October 27th, so residents will have a chance to be heard… possibly louder than the feared hum from Route 527.

 

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN GASOLINE COSTS $10 A GALLON

Reviewing a column I wrote in 2008 I realized that some of my “horror story” predictions have almost come true, even though gasoline prices haven’t quite hit that $10 per gallon trigger point.  Here’s what I wrote 18 years ago, along with my contemporary updates (shown in italics).

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For decades we’ve lived (and driven) in denial, somehow assuming we have the “right” to cheap gas, and therefore, low-cost transportation. Now it’s time to face reality and consider what will happen when (not if) gasoline hits $10 a gallon.

The following are my hypotheses. (Follow the embedded links for recent news coverage that contribute to my theories.) These things haven’t happened… yet, but very well could in the future:

AIR TRANSPORT:            Following the demise of a dozen airlines and the shrinking of the remaining carriers, air fares soar and service is cut.  Air travel becomes affordable to few. (Jet fuel prices are up 80% in 2026 since the start of the Iran war).  Airport congestion fades as business trips are replaced with tele-conferencing.  Resorts are shuttered as “leisure travel” becomes unaffordable.

HIGHWAYS:           Rush-hour on I-95 is a breeze as half of all motorists can no longer afford to drive.  But the highways are a mess of potholes because the price of asphalt, made from petroleum, quintuples making it impossible to maintain the roads because gas tax revenues have dropped with decreased sales.  (Asphalt prices in the Northeast today are up 42% since February).  With more people working from home or on flex-time, traffic congestion is a thing of the past. 

But with home heating oil prices soaring faster than gasoline (already up 26% since the Iran war), people close off rooms in their “McMansions” and huddle in the few remaining spaces they can afford to heat, usually with wood stoves which are also in short supply.  Office buildings, by law, can heat to no higher than 60 degrees in colder months.  Sweaters become the new fashion trend, out of necessity.

MASS TRANSIT:   Seats are pulled out of railcars to increase standing room capacity and Metro-North offers cheaper fares to those who can’t find a seat.  As in Tokyo, “pushers” (click here for video) are assigned at Grand Central to squeeze passengers into trains.  Few can afford to drive and park at rail stations, so most spaces in local station lots are turned over to bike racks.  Despite fare increases, ridership soars.

AROUND TOWN:   Local traffic drops as people consolidate their few truly necessary shopping trips.  Food prices soar because farmers too are dependent on oil (for fertilizers, packaging and transport). (Diesel prices as of September 2026 were up 78% this year).  Food imported out of season becomes an occasional treat.  Few can afford to eat out at now-chilly restaurants dealing with the same food shortages.  Wagons and carts, bikes with racks, mopeds and scooters replace the SUV.  Kids finally take the school bus daily instead of being chauffeured by Mom.  Suburban housing prices fall as people flock to the walkable cities with good mass transit.  Local taxes rise, encouraging further migration.  Schools can’t afford good teachers, who face increasingly expensive commutes from far away due to lack of local affordable housing.

THE ENVIRONMENT:       Oil drilling begins in the Alaskan wilderness, but no supply of oil will reach the lower-48 for three years.  In a panic, Congress weakens clean air laws to permit increased use of coal in power plants.  Air pollution worsens and acid rain decimates much of the Northeast.  Increased CO2 emissions hasten global warming. The sea level rises and coastal communities risk greater flooding as more numerous and powerful hurricanes ravage the US.

 

Will any of these predictions come true? Time will tell.  What can we do to prevent this Doomsday scenario?  Not much.  So enjoy what’s left of the era of cheap oil.  We’ll all have a lot of explaining to do to our grandchildren.

THE MUSEUM THAT OWNS ITS OWN RAILROAD

Happy 30^th birthday to the largest railroad museum in Connecticut, the Railroad Museum of New England in Thomaston.

It was in 1996 that the museum, which now has almost 100 rail cars in its collection, made its first passenger runs.  To celebrate there will be special excursion runs Saturday & Sunday September 26 and 27, filled with happy rail fans.

GE U-Boat 2798

What makes this railroad museum so different is that it owns a freight railroad, the Naugatuck Railroad, the proceeds from which help fund the museum and its extensive restoration efforts.

“The ‘Naugy’ began running in 1849,” says its President and railroad veteran Howard Pincus who also serves as Chairman of the Board for the Museum.  “The railroad played a major role in the development of industry in the Naugatuck Valley.”  Though the railroad’s tracks are now owned by the CDOT, the Naugy operates its trains over them, hauling construction debris and occasional freight as a short-line railroad connecting with CSX and Norfolk Southern.

“The CDOT Office of Rail has been a wonderful partner,” claims Pincus, “especially on infrastructure repairs like bridges.”

Pincus says it’s a long haul up a steep grade to run any railroad let alone one funding a museum.  Restoration of a single freight car can cost up to $40,000.  Repairing the old Thomaston train station has already cost the Museum more than $100,000.  “It’s insanely expensive,” says Pincus, “especially to do it right.”

And it’s the artistry of the restoration work that sets the RMNE apart, even compared to the rail cars in the fine collections of the Danbury and Essex railroads. 

Restoration Shops

The RMNE has its own restoration shops with six full-time artisans, many of them in their 20s.  “I want to make sure there’s some continuity (in our mission),” says Pincus.  “I’m absolutely thrilled when I walk in that shop and see young people doing such amazing (restoration) work.”

Like the 26 year old self-taught metal fabricator and welder who rebuilt an old Canadian National passenger coach “down to iron oxide and thin air” and two weeks later rolled it out of the shop “looking like it just came from the Canadian Car and Foundry in Montreal,” said the proud Pincus.

As with any non-profit, the Museum couldn’t function without a dedicated cadre of volunteers who do everything from catalog their archives to serve as train hosts.  So popular is the Thomaston site that volunteers journey from as far away as Long Island for the chance to lay hands on this living memorabilia.

Shop tours will be available for Museum members with tour guides to manage down the enthusiasm of the “foamers” (a pejorative term used by railroad people to describe rabid rail fans who they believe may actually foam at the mouth when seeing old trains).

Both rail excursions (Saturday 9-26 & Sunday 9-27) will include “rare mileage”… the first time a passenger train has rolled over some of these tracks in many, many years.  But the stars of the trips will be the equipment including old Canadian passenger coaches and a GE U23 freshly painted to celebrate America’s 250^th birthday.

The only question is, where will they mount the birthday candles.