Reviewing a column I wrote in 2008 I realized that some of
my “horror story” predictions have almost come true, even though gasoline
prices haven’t quite hit that $10 per gallon trigger point. Here’s what I wrote 18 years ago, along with
my contemporary updates (shown in italics).
===============================================================
For decades we’ve lived (and driven) in denial, somehow
assuming we have the “right” to cheap gas, and therefore, low-cost
transportation. Now it’s time to face reality and consider what will
happen when (not if) gasoline hits $10 a gallon.
The following are my hypotheses. (Follow the embedded
links for recent news coverage that contribute to my theories.) These
things haven’t happened… yet, but very well could in the future:
AIR TRANSPORT: Following
the demise of a dozen airlines and the shrinking of the remaining
carriers, air fares soar and service is cut.
Air travel becomes affordable to few. (Jet fuel prices are up 80% in
2026 since the start of the Iran war). Airport congestion fades as business trips
are replaced with tele-conferencing. Resorts
are shuttered as “leisure travel” becomes unaffordable.
HIGHWAYS: Rush-hour on I-95 is a breeze as half
of all motorists can no longer afford to drive. But the highways are a
mess of potholes because the price of asphalt, made from petroleum, quintuples making it impossible to
maintain the roads because gas tax revenues have dropped with decreased
sales. (Asphalt prices in the
Northeast today are up 42% since February). With more people working from home or on
flex-time, traffic congestion is a thing of the past.
But with home heating oil prices soaring faster than gasoline (already up 26% since the
Iran war), people close off rooms in their “McMansions” and huddle
in the few remaining spaces they can afford to heat, usually with wood
stoves which are also in short supply. Office
buildings, by law, can heat to no higher than 60 degrees in colder
months. Sweaters become the new fashion
trend, out of necessity.
MASS TRANSIT:
Seats are pulled out of railcars to increase standing room capacity and
Metro-North offers cheaper fares to those who can’t find a seat. As
in Tokyo, “pushers” (click here for video) are
assigned at Grand Central to squeeze passengers into trains. Few can
afford to drive and park at rail stations, so most spaces in local station lots
are turned over to bike racks. Despite
fare increases, ridership soars.
AROUND TOWN: Local traffic drops as people consolidate
their few truly necessary shopping trips. Food prices soar because farmers
too are dependent on oil (for fertilizers, packaging and transport). (Diesel
prices as of September 2026 were up 78% this year). Food imported out of season becomes an
occasional treat. Few can afford to eat out at now-chilly restaurants
dealing with the same food shortages. Wagons and carts, bikes with racks,
mopeds and scooters replace the SUV. Kids finally take the school bus
daily instead of being chauffeured by Mom. Suburban housing prices fall
as people flock to the walkable cities with good mass transit. Local
taxes rise, encouraging further migration. Schools can’t afford good
teachers, who face increasingly expensive commutes from far away due to lack of
local affordable housing.
THE ENVIRONMENT: Oil drilling begins in the Alaskan
wilderness, but no supply of oil will reach the lower-48 for three years.
In a panic, Congress weakens clean air laws to permit increased use of
coal in power plants. Air pollution worsens and acid rain decimates
much of the Northeast. Increased CO2 emissions hasten global
warming. The sea level rises and coastal communities risk greater flooding
as more
numerous and powerful hurricanes ravage
the US.
Will any of these predictions come true? Time will
tell. What can we do to prevent this Doomsday scenario? Not much. So enjoy what’s left of the era of cheap
oil. We’ll all have a lot of explaining to do to our grandchildren.
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