"Getting There" - Biden's Infrastructure Plan

 Hurrah!  It’s finally “infrastructure week” in Washington. 

In his first 100 days as President, Joe Biden has delivered a plan that his predecessor just kept teasing us with for four years:  a complete rehabilitation and expansion of the nation’s infrastructure.

Of course, Biden’s “American Jobs Act” goes way beyond just rebuilding roads, bridges and rails.  It also covers our water supply, electrical grid, internet, sea and airports, our housing stock and our very jobs.

It’s too much and way too expensive ($2+ trillion) for conservatives but hardly enough for progressives.  That sounds great to me. With plenty for everyone to hate there’s lots of negotiating room on all sides in the months ahead.

Biden is right to think big.  After decades of underinvestment in the ‘bones’ of our economy, it’s time to do more than catch up but to leapfrog ahead.  Remember it was Republican presidents who built the interstate highway system (Eisenhower) and the Panama Canal (Teddy Roosevelt) using public money.  Why did they have a long-range vision but today’s Republicans are so myopic?

Because this time it’s the corporations who’ll be asked to pay up by raising corporate taxes from 21% to 28%.  That’s still less than the 35% tax rate in effect before Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.  Remember them?… the corporate welfare program that was supposed to create jobs but ended up just making business fat-cats plumper thanks to corporate stock buybacks.

Why not ask business to pay its fair share?  How could 55 of the nation’s top businesses pay zero taxes last year despite billions in profits?

Who benefits from a better infrastructure more than business?  Better roads, safer bridges, dependable electricity, smooth running airports, clean water and a well trained workforce are the things that will make business thrive.

Right now, when it comes to infrastructure, we’re living in a third world country. 

If China can build the largest high speed rail system in the world in just 15 years, why do we make Amtrak to barely limp along on table scraps just to fund its operating costs?

If Germany can build a green energy network providing almost half of the nation’s electric needs, why does Texas go dark in a winter cold spell… or Connecticut when high winds take out our utilities’ fragile networks?

Anyone who drives on potholed I-95 or endures a teeth-chattering ride on Metro-North knows we can do better.  Do we need a bullet train to Ronkonkoma?  Maybe not.  But fixing our existing transportation network would be an easy start.

And that’s what the Biden team is counting on:  public pressure for a “Big Fix” to persuade Republican lawmakers to fund the “shovel ready” if not also the “shovel worthy”.

Shepherding this mammoth package of legislation through Congress won’t be easy.  Speaker Pelosi herself thinks it won’t emerge from the House until July and then the Senate negotiations begin.

Oh, there will be plenty of horse-trading and the final package will little resemble what’s been initially proposed, burdened down by special interest as lobbyists earn their keep in DC.

What do you think are the most important projects to prioritize?  Join the discussion on CTInsiders Facebook page or follow the #GettingThereCT hashtag on Twitter to add your thoughts and I’ll share them in my next column.

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media.

"Getting There" - A Conversation with the Commissioner

 Joe Giulietti loves to talk, especially about trains.  As Commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Transportation when he calls me and say “Jim… let’s have a chat”, I’m all ears.  In a recent exclusive one-on-one, here’s what he said:

WILL RAIL COMMUTER COME BACK?

The Commissioner says yes, but maybe not until the fall.  “Am I optimistic?  I have to be. The disappointing fact right now is we (still) only have 10% of (pre-COVID) ridership.  The trains we have now can meet (that) demand.  If ridership increases we can add more. ”

ARE THE TRAINS SAFE?

“We have one of the safest (rail) systems out there.  The air is exchanged in the cars almost every five minutes. There’s a constant flow of fresh air.”  While Metro-North did experiment with virus-killing UV light treatments in the cars’ HVAC it turns out that an ionization process is more effective at scrubbing virus from the air.

MASK COMPLIANCE

Initially voluntary, then with a small fine for offenders, mask-wearing is now required by Federal rules.  “Compliance is between 95 and 97%.  Enforcement is done by the MTA Police, strategically placed to respond (to non-wearers).”

INCREASING TRAINS SPEED

Trains are still running slow under FRA rules following the Fairfield and Spuyten Duyvil derailments in 2013.  But now that Positive Train control is installed, CDOT is working with the FRA to get their speed restrictions lifted.

“People are asking for higher speeds.  We also have a Governor constantly reminding us he wants faster speeds,” says the Commissioner.  But, he added “you know I never bought into 30-30-30.  It’s just a vision and a goal.”

MODIFYING TIMETABLES

Commuters complain that trains make too many stops, further slowing up the ride.  So CDOT is studying ‘zoned service’.  A train might run from Grand Central to Stamford then skip-stop to Bridgeport.  The train behind it could make the intermediate stops.

“With ridership down we can step back and look at our schedules.  Modeling (by computer) has got a lot better. Of course every town wants express service from their station,” he said with a chuckle.  Best bet is the fastest service will be to and from the busiest stations, perhaps as early as the fall.

Commuting hours have also changed, so also look for added service earlier in the AM.

WHAT ABOUT FARES?

“I don’t know that we’ll have a monthly ticket anymore… based on the utilization. Maybe we’ll come up with a 30-trip ticket.”

There’s no plan to resume peak fares at rush hour but the railroad and CDOT have to find revenue to cover their huge operating deficits beyond Uncle Sam’s one-time bailout. “A lot of people don’t buy into the subsidization.  We’re trying to find a balance to keep trains running and meet the social justice (obligation of service).”

MORE M8 CARS

As the final new M8 cars get delivered, the railroad has more than enough cars for needed service.  CDOT may even have enough M8s to share a pair with MBTA in Boston for their testing, allowing for group orders of future cars. Testing of the M8s on Shore Line East is progressing (after six years) .

TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT

The legislature is debating looser, state-wide zoning regulations, especially near train stations.  But what happens to those developments ideas if ridership doesn’t come back?

“I do believe (ridership) is coming back. If it doesn’t we won’t just be talking about T.O.D. but the future of business itself.”

 

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media

"Getting There" - How To Save Metro-North

 How are we going to get riders back on the trains and save Metro-North from ballooning deficits, potential service cuts or fare hikes?  That’s the question I crowd-sourced on social media last week and found dozens of great answers!

Most respondents said they won’t be commuting as much as before because they will continue working from home. It’s not that they are shunning the rails out of fear,  just that commuting won’t be necessary. “Most of us have figured out how to work without riding a train every day”, one rider opined.

A few cynics said mass transit is dead.  “Rip out the rails. Pave it over. Deploy autonomous minivans,” said one. 

But for the believers they still want reassurance that, even post-vaccinations, safety will continue:  “Better ventilation. More cleaning. Cars look like they’re being ‘wiped down’ using rags from a dumpster.  Clean the bathrooms!”

A few sang the praises of the new M8 railcars: “So much better.  Never a hot or cold car. No doors out of service. Cars ride smooth.”  But a former Shore Line East rider said the seats on their old hand-me-down railcars were causing him back aches so he’s now driving.

But the biggest areas for needed improvement for Metro-North seemed to be speed, frequency and lower cost.

The vast majority of respondents said the trains are “too slow”, that “it shouldn’t take 90 minutes to go 40 miles”  As one veteran rider put it, “My 50 min ride when I started commuting in 2004 is now an hour and 10 plus.”  Many noted it’s now faster and cheaper to drive than take the train.

The railroad is still operating under FRA speed restrictions since the 2013 Fairfield derailment.  But the other reason the run to NYC is so slow is the schedule.  “There’s way too many stops on the New Haven Line”… “go back to zoned service”… and “speed, speed, speed”, they observed.

This is actually an idea CDOT is pursuing… having more express trains skipping stations, so let’s see if they can make it happen.

Commuters said that schedules need to offer “better connections” to buses and the ferry.  Some suggested “through-running service to NJ and Long Island” offering a one-seat ride to JFK and Newark airports.  Several wanted bike rentals at all stations.

More frequent service was a big issue.  “Rapid transit trains every 15 minutes.” And “more off-peak service”.  Surprisingly, nobody complained about rush-hour trains.

One person suggested “reserved seating”, others dreamt of “no standees”.  And there were many complaints about the fares and availability of station parking.

“Between station parking and monthly pass it’s $400 a month, almost the same as driving.”  “Lower fares” and “more flexibility on tickets.  A monthly is too much and a ten-trip too little.  Maybe a 30 trip?”

Others suggested group fares and lower fares off-peak to spread out the riders.  One even wished for “buy one get one weekend fares”.

Other desired amenities included “Wi-Fi” and, yes, “bar cars!”.

To save money on labor, several proposed pre-paid tickets with inspectors and fines.  “No other developed countries’ railroads have conductors manually check tickets.”  Others suggested cross-honoring tickets on still-empty Amtrak trains.

Thanks to everybody for chiming in with your ideas, all of which I’ll be sharing verbatim with MNRR and CDOT. Let’s hope they include past-riders’ ideas in their future plans.

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media

"Getting There" - Governor Lamont's Transportation Budget Doesn't Add Up

 The Governor’s proposed biennial budget for transportation just doesn’t add up.

Thanks to reduced rail ridership he’s projecting cost savings in the CDOT budget of $82 million over the next two years but promises no further cuts in service beyond those already taken during the pandemic.  But how does that jibe with Metro-North parent MTA’s projected $8 billion operating deficit through 2024?

Even pre-pandemic when ridership was at record highs, Metro-North still lost money.  And taxpayers made up the difference.  Grumbling commuters packed in SRO rush-hour trains paying the highest commuter rail fares in the US still couldn’t cover operating costs, let alone capital expansion.

Now, with ridership down 80% those deficits are exploding.  And even if relief money comes from Uncle Sam, how long can near-empty trains be kept running?

As I’ve written before, I don’t think commuters will be coming back post-pandemic in anywhere near the old numbers.  So if ridership remains low and the MTA sticks to its promise of no layoffs or fare hikes, something’s got to give.

Metro-North President Catherine Rinaldi says I’m wrong.  She says post-COVID daily ridership will only drop 10 – 20 percent.  But it’s those monthly pass holders who gave the railroad almost half of its revenue pre-COVID and their loss can never be made up by off-peak and weekend day-trippers to New York City’s attractions as she hopes.

Stay tuned for mandatory public hearings on all this, what I’ve called “political theater”.   But whatever commuters may say, however they might complain, their testimony won’t make a darn bit of difference.  The CDOT budget won’t change.  The fiscal die has been cast and come up “snake eyes”.

None of this should surprise you when you consider how the Governor writes his budget.  In fact, the document is not of his creation but OPM’s… the Office of Policy and Management. 

OPM doesn’t ask the CDOT “how much do you need for roads and rails?”.  They tell the agency, “Here’s how much you’ll get.  And here’s where to make the cuts.”

But while the Lamont budget sees “savings” through reduced rail and bus operations, it has found money for any number of highway projects while at the same time saying we need to reduce air pollution.  More highways, more cars, more pollution.  So much for their vaunted Transportation Climate Initiative.

Folks, it just doesn’t add up.

There are no tolls in this proposed budget. But there is a “mileage tax” on heavy trucks passing through our state.  That’s fine with me as I’ve always supported user fees.  But the $90 million that tax is expected to generate will do little to save the Special Transportation Fund from a deficit this year and insolvency by 2024.

In fact, that $90 million will just be used to fund issuance of more bonds to be paid off by our grandchildren.  Never mind the $92 billion (yes, billion) in long term debt coming due in the next 20 years for underfunded teacher pensions and such.

Today, 40% of the CDOT budget goes to paying debt service on bonds issued decades back.  We can’t even pay for the decrepit transportation we have today, so our short-sighted lawmakers just kick the proverbial can down the road. 

The problem is… we’ve run out of road.

 Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media

"Getting There" - Stop the Maybrook Madness

 Anyone who follows this column knows I’m a “train guy”.  I’ve always been a supporter of mass transit and continue to be.  But sometimes I wonder just where the state’s priorities are when they chose to waste a million dollars on yet another crazy study.

This time it’s a study of the Maybrook line, a 14-mile, single-track of rusting rail running west from Danbury to Brewster NY and beyond.

Metro-North used to run their equipment (not passenger trains) over to their Croton shops via the line, but little else.  Now there’s going to be a study (yes, for one million dollars) of converting the line for passenger trains.

The idea was pushed heavily by former Danbury mayor Mark Boughton who promised it could “shave an hour” off commuting time to Grand Central. Oh, really?

Rather than crawling down the existing Danbury branch to Norwalk and then on the mainline to New York, Maybrook trains would go west from Danbury and connect with the Harlem branch of Metro-North, then head south through White Plains and into the city.

But Boughton’s dream has about as much of a grip on reality as Governor Lamont’s wishful 30-30-30 plan (30 minutes from Stamford to GCT, etc).  It just isn’t physically possible.  And I won’t need a million bucks to tell you why.

The average train from Danbury to NYC on the existing branch takes about two hours and 17 minutes (including a change of trains at South Norwalk).  The trains from Brewster NY to Grand Central take about an hour and 39 minutes.  But add in the running time from Danbury to Brewster (and another train connection there)  and you’re probably talking an additional 30 minutes, meaning a total time savings of less than ten minutes of commuting time via Maybrook.

Just how does that “shave an hour” off that commute?

But there are other problems to consider too.

In Connecticut the Maybrook line is owned by the Housatonic Railroad, a tiny freight railroad, not by Metro-North.  And parts of this single-track railroad now have a pedestrian and bicycle “rail trail” running alongside making it unsuitable for double-tracking.  There are dozens of grade crossings and no signal system. And it’s not electrified.

Further, parking in downtown Danbury near the Metro-North station is limited and to get there you have to fight local traffic.  So why go to that trouble if you can just hop on I-84 and make the drive in 11 minutes instead of 30 minutes by train?

Plus, we’re already spending $715 million to widen I-84 west of Danbury to make the drive even quicker.

Putnam County NY officials are enthusiastic about this Maybrook idea (and are paying $200,000 of the study’s cost)  because so many Connecticut residents already make that drive, catching the train in Brewster or Southeast, but clogging up “their” parking lots with Connecticut-plated cars.

That’s why there’s already a frequent bus shuttle run by HART that connects Danbury and Brewster in 28 minutes. It’s hardly luxurious.  But what do you expect for $1.75 one way?

With so much of our existing railroad system in need of repair and replacement, why are we wasting a million dollars on yet another study of a politician’s pipedream that will prove unnecessary, impractical and too expensive?

Forget about this Maybrook Madness and let’s fix what we already have.

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media

"Getting There" - Transportation Construction is Too Expensive

 Why is transportation construction so expensive in our area?  What kind of honor was it when New York City recently surpassed Zurich (one of the most expensive cities in the world) as #1 on the most-expensive-place-to-do-underground-construction dishonor roll?

The highly respected Regional Plan Association (RPA.org) has studied that question and offers some explanations and frightening examples.  Focusing on three recent MTA mega-projects in New York City… the Second Avenue Subway, the #7 subway extension to Manhattan’s west side and the LIRR’s East Side Access project (ESA), their findings make for depressing reading.

Let’s focus on the ESA plan… an ambitious project to construct new rail tunnels under Park Avenue and a new rail station ten storeys beneath Grand Central to serve LIRR trains. This is an important project for Connecticut as it will eventually allow some Metro-North trains to run across the Hells Gate Bridge to Penn Station.

Once estimated to cost $4.3 B and to be finished by 2009, ESA may not be finished until 2022 at a total cost of $12.2 B.  So, what happened?

The RPA report says the project was initially pushed by politicians who grossly underestimated the initial budget just to get it approved. Because Metro-North and the LIRR (both part of the MTA) operate as silos, they had trouble coordinating their efforts.  Worst of all, the procurement process and contract writing was a mess, adding four years of delays.

Though the ESA project was huge in cost, it was small in distance:  only 3.5 miles of new tunnels and track.  But it involved boring huge tunnels through bedrock and ended up building the most expensive mile of railroad track in the world… over $3B.

One big culprit was labor.

In 2010 auditors found that 900 workers were each being paid about $1000 a day though only 700 workers were needed for the job.  Nobody could explain what the other 200 workers were doing every day, aside from getting rich.

An investigation by the New York Times blamed the cozy relationship between labor unions and politicians, consultants who hired MTA bosses to gain more work and contractors and vendors regularly inflating their bids by 15 – 25% for what’s known as “the MTA factor”, i.e. the hassles of working with that agency.

Jobs like running the tunnel boring machines were staffed with 25 workers on the ESA project, about triple the number employed on the same equipment overseas.  Elevators at the construction site each had an human operator even though they ran automatically.  Crane operators also had an “oiler”, an unneeded throwback to older times.  All told, staffing for underground construction in New York City was quadruple that of similar jobs abroad.

The labor unions push back saying the work is dirty and dangerous and their members live in one of the most expensive cities in the world so they deserve more.

The RPA report also cites other problems including lengthy environmental reviews (up to seven years vs. two years in Europe), insurance and liability roadblocks, flawed project designs causing frequent (and expensive) change orders and a lack of post-project reviews to learn from mistakes.

If we are ever going to see New York City grow and prosper again, expanding (and repairing) its transportation system will be essential… if we don’t price ourselves out of business.

 

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media

 

 

"Getting There" - Northeast Maglev is Coming

 Imagine going from New York City to Washington DC in one hour… not by plane, but by maglev. 

By comparison, today the same trip from the LaGuardia to DC’s Reagan airport takes about 90 minutes by air (not counting getting to and from the airports) and costs $276 one way.  On Amtrak’s Acela the fastest run, downtown to downtown, is three hours and costs $157.  Or you could take the bus for $30, assuming you have 4 ½ hours to waste.

A maglev is a train, of sorts, that floats on a cushion of air, suspended and propelled along a special track quite different from conventional railroads.  The technology has been around for over a hundred years but there are few maglevs in operation so far.

One of the best known is in Shanghai. I’ve ridden it and was not impressed.  The ride was short, about 8 minutes over 17 miles, and only about 220 mph… no faster than China’s high speed conventional trains.

But the country that’s closest to opening a long distance commercial maglev is Japan where the private (and pre-COVID, very profitable) JR Central Railroad is building a maglev line for 177 miles from Tokyo to Nagoya, the Chuo Shinkansen.  That maglev will fly along the track up to 314 mph.

And it’s that Japanese technology that will be used by Northeast Maglev, the private American company developing the US system.  Like the Japanese system it will include a superconducting suspension and propulsion system, SCMaglev.  At those speeds it is certainly possible for the ‘trains’ to make the 230 mile journey in an hour, even with intermediate stops.

Planning by Northeast Maglev is already underway for the first part of the project, connecting Washington DC to Baltimore with 70% of the route underground, avoiding disruption above ground in the dense corridor.  The Washington DC terminal would be near the downtown Convention Center and the Baltimore station either near Camden Yards (downtown) or in the outskirts where interstates 95 and 695 connect.

Trains would offer service every 15 minutes including an underground stop at BWI Airport, just south of the city.  The fares, they say, would be competitive to Amtrak. That’s got to hurt Acela ridership.

Assuming the operation is successful, the line could continue north to Philadelphia, New York and maybe even Boston by way of Connecticut, though the routing through our state is anyone’s guess at this point.

With up to 50% of the $10 billion initial cost being covered by the government of Japan, Northeast Maglev’s biggest hurdle now is getting necessary approval of the 30 different state and Federal agencies with jurisdiction.  The environmental impact studies alone are into their fifth year.

Not to be outdone, Elon Musk’s Hyperloop is seeking permission to construct its first tunnel, a 10 mile section, eventually connecting DC to Baltimore.  But unlike the Japanese maglev, Hyperloop’s “maglev in a vacuum tube” is far from a proven technology.

The implications of a maglev (or Hyperloop) running at these kinds of speeds are astounding.  Shortening the travel time is like bringing the cities that are served closer together. 

You could live in New York and commute daily to a job in Washington DC faster than you can get from Fairfield to Grand Central Terminal.

If post-pandemic demand for travel returns, Northeast Maglev could be a game changer when it comes to inter-city travel.

Posted with permission of Hearst CT Media