Hard to believe, but it was 45 years ago that the first 747
carried passengers when KLM debuted its commercial service. Since then, the iconic jumbo jet has carried
millions in relative comfort and safety.
But now, its days are numbered.
Last summer Boeing said it was possible that it would end
production of the 747 (with the possible exception of a pair of replacements
for Air Force One, if the Trump White House doesn’t kill the plan). Even the
much larger A-380, a double-deck Airbus, may have seen its sales peak.
Airbus spent $25 billion to develop the world’s largest
passenger plane, but only 319 have been ordered (compared to more than 1500
747’s). And of that number, 125 have yet
to be delivered, 60 of those destined for Emirates Airline. In 2015, the A-380 (which can carry over 850
passengers) saw just three new orders.
Why are the jumbo jets losing favor? It’s a matter of simple economics: they’re too expensive to operate compared
with newer planes like the smaller 787 and A-350.
It takes a very busy travel corridor to fill an 800-seat
airplane. And flying one jumbo instead of
two smaller planes means fewer departure time options for passengers. The A-380 makes sense for hub-and-spoke
airlines like Emirates which routes all its flights through Dubai for
connections. But rival airlines can fly
direct, city to city, up to 8000 miles non-stop using the smaller jets.
Sure, the 787 doesn’t offer the First Class suites ($21,000
one way) that you’ll find on an A-380 (each with its own min-bar, gourmet
meals, lie-flat bed and a shower spa). But
those amenities are out of reach to all but the plutocrats. And even Arab oil sheiks are pinching pennies
these days.
But even as the major airlines are shrinking their planes to
save on fuel, one airline is doing the opposite. Virgin Atlantic is thinking of
bringing back the supersonic transport, or SST.
Tentatively named “Boom”, the new craft would carry 45-50
passengers at mach 2.2, faster than the old Concorde which was retired in 2003. And the smaller craft would be capable of
longer distances: 5000 miles vs. the
Concorde’s 4500). That means that New
York to London (3441 miles) would take just 3.5 hours compared to 7 hours on a
jumbo jet.
But the extended range of Boom would also make it possible
to fly Seattle to Tokyo (4763 miles),
something Concorde could never achieve without stopping for fuel. And given a new design, Boom would operate
cost efficiently at sub-sonic speeds over land to avoid the sonic boom. The Concorde burned about a ton
of fuel per passenger crossing the Atlantic. Just taxiing from the terminal at Heathrow
for take-off, the old Concorde burned more fuel than an A-320 flying from
London to Paris.
They’re still crunching the numbers on the Boom, but with
roundtrip first class fares JFK to London now standing at $8000, the Branson
team at Virgin think they could offer the same trip for $5000! A small prototype of the Boom is being built
to test
the concept.
So enjoy the jumbo jets while you can. Their days may be numbered and your aviation
future may be smaller… but much faster.
If you’re like 99% of all fliers who sit in “the back of the bus”, you
may not miss the jumbos a whole lot.
Reposted with permission of Hearst CT Media
No comments:
Post a Comment