WILL HIGHER GAS PRICES HELP MASS TRANSIT?

 Who’s not upset about higher gas prices?  Proponents of mass transit.

Transit advocates might be accused of a little schadenfreude, taking satisfaction in drivers’ pain at the pump.  Or maybe they’re renewing their long term dream: Maybe this will finally push people out of their cars and onto the train and bus! 

Maybe not.

In 2008, when gasoline spiked, ridership on Metro-North surged.  Connecticut commuters did the math and decided the train beat sitting on I-95 burning $4 gas.

But these days gasoline is not the main cost of driving. 

Sure, the price of gas is just the most visible expense … the one glowing at you on every street corner.  But for most drivers, that’s only a fraction of what they’re already paying. The real costs are “sunk”: car payments, insurance, maintenance, depreciation.  Whether gas is $3 or $5, you’re still writing those checks every month.

Your car doesn’t get cheaper just because you leave it in the driveway.  It just sits there like a very expensive lawn ornament, depreciating.

So when gas rises by a dollar a gallon (as it has in a month), the typical commuter might spend an extra $30 or $40 a month.  Painful, yes.  But not exactly life-changing when you’re already paying hundreds monthly for the car itself.

Gas prices are the classic example of an inelastic market.  Prices go up… and people grumble, but they keep driving, in many Connecticut locales because it’s the only option.

Of course, the transportation equation depends on what alternatives to driving you might have.  Is there a bus?  When’s the train?  How frequent and reliable is the service?  And what’s the fare?  

Assuming there are mass transit alternatives to the daily drive, some commuters may become part-time transit riders. They’ll drive some days, take the train others, especially when traffic or the weather are brutal.  Or maybe when gas spikes even higher.  Or when parking in Stamford or New Haven feel like highway robbery.

Early signs are already there.  Commuter ridership on Metro-North Railroad was ticking up even before the Iran war. That may continue.

Ironically, the railroad is now running a social media campaign encouraging riders to avoid standing in the aisles and vestibules on crowded trains, instead sitting in that dreaded middle seat on the three-seat side.  They say this will “avoid crowding”.  That’s putting the mass back into mass transit.

So the real “trigger price” for behavior change in commuting isn’t just a number on the gas pump.  It’s a combination of factors: sustained high prices, lousy traffic, expensive parking, and most of all, whether you actually need to make the trip at all.

Work from home seems a lot more attractive these days, something we didn’t have as an option in previous oil “shocks”.  Thank you COVID, the ultimate commute-killer.

Let’s be honest: you can’t argue with the convenience of driving.  But to save money, people will adjust: combine trips, carpool, skip errands, shop online.  Or even rethink that low-mileage SUV.

PS: Just as gas prices rise, there’s another 5% fare increase coming this summer for commuter rail in Connecticut … and a potential 30% cut in Bridgeport bus service. Timing is everything.