NJ TRANSIT MELTDOWN OFFERS HOPE FOR COMPETITION

What happens when years of neglect catch up with a commuter railroad?  Look no further than New Jersey, where NJ Transit is in the midst of a meltdown.  This should serve as a warning to Connecticut.

Hardly a day goes by without hearing of train woes in the Garden State, many of them tied to broken down trains or catenary (overhead power wires) being snagged in Penn Station.  Service is abysmal and yet a 15% fare hike is going to effect July 1^st.

Adding to the woes, an impending strike by locomotive engineers after four years of arbitration and no contract.

What happened?  About a dozen years of under-investment in the railroad dating back to the term of Governor Chris Christie who famously cancelled plans to build a badly needed new tunnel under the Hudson River.

When Governor Phil Murphy was elected in 2017 he promised to change all that, but in recent years he’s taken money that was to be spent on capital improvements and spent it instead on operations.  That’s a big no-no.

Like Metro-North, NJ Transit has never recovered from Covid with ridership hovering at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels. Fewer riders means less revenue for what was already a money-losing operation.

But the railroad’s woes are now offering potential competition from entrepreneur Joe Colangelo, the 39 year old founder and CEO of Boxcar.

Joe Colangelo

You might remember him as the guy who started a parking app for rail commuters before the pandemic, when ridership was soaring and station parking was scarce.  He still runs that business, managing 1500 parking spaces near stations in four states (including 140 spaces in New Canaan, Greenwich & Darien), all bookable on their app. 

But Boxcar’s real innovation is running 46 to 56 seat luxury motor coaches from 12 NJ bedroom communities into midtown Manhattan.  They offer guaranteed seats, free Wi-Fi and amazing customer service… at a price.

“Our customers are willing to trade money for time and convenience,” says Colangelo, a Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan. Members pay $30 a month and get a 33% discount on fares which are 50 – 100% higher than the train fare.

“Half of our customers used to ride the train,” says Colangelo.  But he says many had a bad experience on the subway getting from Penn Station to their offices and won’t go back.  Boxcar offers a one-seat ride with 65 runs a day Tuesday through Thursday and a dozen trips on Fridays.

“About two thirds of our riders say if the bus wasn’t available, they’d drive,” he adds.

Boxcar charters its buses from 14 different companies and each run has a dedicated driver, “giving riders a relationship, like with a doorman”.

Every run is monitored from 5 am to 8 pm and if it’s as little as 2 minutes late, each passenger is given a text update.  If there’s no AC on the bus, your ride is free (something that happened just four times on 1200 runs last year).  They even keep an extra bus on standby should any problems arise.

Boxcar is ready to expand service to meet demand.  “We know where our next 100 bus charters will come from,” says the boss.  And yes, their operation is already profitable.

Arriving in Manhattan

Boxcar experimented with bus service from New Canaan and Darien but I-95 traffic made their runs too slow.  Colangelo expects that, after the November elections, NY Governor Hochul will reverse her opposition to congestion pricing, car traffic will lighten and bus service from Connecticut might be possible.

Competition is a good thing, especially for poorly managed transit systems more beholden to their political funders than their fare-paying passengers.

US NAVY AT WAR IN RED SEA

Did you know that the US Navy is now engaged in its biggest sea battle since World War II?

That’s the news from the Red Sea where US Navy and other allies’ warships are patrolling the waters, trying to keep commercial shipping safe on its way to and from the Suez Canal despite constant bombardments by the Houthis.

That renegade faction in Yemen, with weapons supplied by Iran, has been attacking ships since November using drones, missiles and unmanned surface vessels (boat bombs).  They claim to be doing these attacks because of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, but their targets have included many ships with no ties to that country.

Those attacks (60 so far) have sunk two ships and killed four mariners, most recently this past week in an attack captured on video by a boat bomb on a Greek-owned bulk carrier.

Why should we care?  Two reasons:

First, 12% of all the world’s shipping goes through the Suez Canal, or used to.  Because of the Houthi attacks and resulting “surge pricing” (up 900%) for war risk insurance, most ships bound from Asia to Europe are now taking the longer, safer route around the tip of Africa adding 4000 miles and about 14-18 days of extra travel time and a 70% bump in fuel costs.  That means shipments are late and the added cost ($1000 per shipping container, 12,000 containers per ship) is being passed along to customers.

Aside for the now-all-too-familiar “supply chain disruptions”, these attacks have now put US sailors literally in harm’s way.

The aptly named Red Sea safety patrols of “Operation Prosperity Guardian” include the US aircraft carrier Eisenhower and its escort ships (cruisers,   destroyers and support vessels) staffed with a combined 6000 - 7000 US crew members.  Now, they too, are under attack by the Houthis.

USS Eisenhower

For nine months the US Navy ships have been on constant alert, watching for incoming attacks… some by swarms of low-speed armed drones, others with anti-ship cruise missiles or even 15,000 mph ballistic missiles.

That means that, 24 x 7, these US warships are watching for Houthi attacks, sometimes responding with American warplanes, missiles and, as a last resort, the Phalanx Gatling gun which fires 3000 rounds per minute with a range of about one mile.

From the time of a Houthi missile launch to possible impact on a target, we’re talking about minutes, maybe even seconds.

Nothing would please the Houthis more than hitting a US Navy ship.  And they’ve already made several claims of bombing the USS Eisenhower, though those claims seem to be more for domestic PR than based in fact.

The US and its allies have fired back on the Houthis’ radar sites, but the guerillas’ truck-mounted launch systems are almost impossible to track let alone destroy.  And the supply of Iranian armaments seems endless.

How will the Pentagon react if (or when) a US Navy ship takes a direct hit or American sailors are injured or killed?  What would an escalation of this war mean to the world’s economy, still struggling to recover?

 

 

 

 

 

BIG BROTHER ON YOUR TRIP

Ready for a summer vacation?  Car packed, airline tickets at hand?  You may not realize it, but Big Brother’s coming along with you.  However you chose to travel, don’t expect to have much privacy.

BY CAR:      I’ve written for years about how E-ZPass tracks your journey, not just your tolls.  And those new gantries built in Manhattan for now-on-hold congestion pricing?  I’d just assume they’re still activated, if not collecting fees.

How about those new super-LPRs (License Plate Readers) that the NY-NJ Port Authority has installed on all bridges into and out of Staten Island?  They track every single vehicle with that data stored for who knows how long.  The NYPD says they’ve already seen a 30% reduction in stolen cars from that outer-most borough, so expect that tech to come to other NYC bridges and tunnels.

Several Connecticut towns are also installing permanent LPRs at their borders to track stolen vehicles.  That data on your comings and goings is also preserved.

On Connecticut’s interstates and parkways there are cameras everywhere.  You can even watch them online.  Red light and speed cameras are now coming to Connecticut.  And in some cities they’re experimenting with stop sign cameras.

Your car is also monitoring how you drive and sharing that data with insurance companies.  The computers inside your engine (and the apps on your phone) collect a lot of information about your acceleration and braking and they “monetize” (sell) the data to insurance companies without your knowledge.

BY TRAIN & SUBWAY:     Metro-North may not have Wi-Fi, but they sure have cameras recording in every car, while many towns also have cameras on every train platform.  And soon every NYC subway train and station will be similarly equipped.  Were they to use facial recognition software, the authorities could track the identity and whereabouts of anyone on the system just as they do in China.

Swipe a MetroCard or use OMNY to ride the subway?  There’s a record of that, too.  And with the MTA losing $800 million to fare evasion, will it be long before AI starts identifying the scofflaws?

ON FOOT / BIKE:   In New York City, there are 18,000 CCTV cameras almost everywhere.  Have you ever noticed how quickly cops can post video of street crime, almost anytime and anywhere?  You are being watched.

BY AIR:        Your airline and the TSA require you to provide a legal ID every time you fly.  And now some airlines are using facial recognition software instead of boarding passes to climb onboard.  ICE (Immigration & Customs Enforcement) also use that software when you enter the country.  And your passport… did you know it has an RFID chip embedded in the cover?  What information is stored on there?

In most European countries residents are required to carry a government issued ID card at all times and to produce it on request of authorities.  Skeptics have always said such oversight would never come to the US, but is the tech I described above any different?  In fact, it’s better, confirming not only your identity but your exact location minute by minute.

Have a great trip.

CONGESTION PRICING ON HOLD

What was she thinking? 

Just 25 days before implementation, why did NY Governor Kathy Hochul pull the plug on New York City’s congestion pricing scheme in a move one pundit called “the perfect clash of governmental incompetence meets political malpractice”.

Five years in the planning and studied over and over again, congestion pricing would have charged drivers of the 700,000 vehicles that enter Manhattan each day below 60^th Street for the privilege:  $15 for a car, $24 - $36 for a truck. In addition to easing gridlock, the plan would also raise $1 billion a year for the cash-strapped MTA to repair and improve mass transit.  That’s a win-win.

Just weeks ago Hochul was in Europe touting congestion pricing as the “better way” to save New York City.  She called her leadership on this issue “being bold” and said sometimes leaders have to make tough decisions and stick with them.

And then she dropped this bombshell without warning… not to members of the MTA Board, other political and business leaders and not to environmentalists.  They are all livid.

IMPACT ON NEW YORKERS

Even before the Hochul surprise, money is so tight at MTA that some capital plans have already been put on hold.  As for the extension of the Second Avenue subway to 125^th St?  It is effectively dead.  So too are plans to increase access to the subways for those with disabilities.  And she claims about caring about the poor?

Of those in poverty living in the city’s outer boroughs, only 2% of them drive into Manhattan while 61% use mass transit.  Most of the poor don’t even own cars.

 

IMPACT ON CONNECTICUT COMMUTERS

For Connecticut commuters to NYC, the impact of Gov Hochul’s decision will be minimal.  Planned expenditures on new railcars for Metro-North will be paid for with state (and federal) funds, not money from the MTA. 

But even if congestion pricing had gone into effect, Connecticut commuters wouldn’t really have been impacted.  According to the MTA, 27,000 of our residents take the train to NYC each day.  Only 3100 people drive.  And under congestion pricing, those who, for whatever reason still chose to drive, could do so, probably enjoying less traffic on their journey in return for their “toll”.

Of course, even if you take Metro-North to Grand Central, your journey might then include a subway ride, and that’s where Gov Hochul’s decision will be most felt with more crowding and deteriorating service.

THE BOTTOM LINE

How will Hochul make up the lost revenue that would have come from congestion pricing?  By a new tax on businesses.  How will that improve the city’s business climate let alone repair the environment, the other big promise of congestion pricing?

Worst of all, this decision by New York’s governor will cripple her administration’s credibility and just feed everyone’s cynicism about politicians saying one thing and doing another.  How can she make any deal, make any promise or attempt to govern the Empire State after this flip-flop fiasco?